Whether of Climate

Even as you read this article, you may see on the right-hand corner, a rather endearing caption, 'Hopenhagen..' I understand the aspirations of those who have worked for the cause. But I feel, that the initial 'Copenhagen' was fine. Copenhagen, actually sums up the reality. The success lies in the ability to 'cope' with the 'hope'.

Unparalleled literary works of yesteryear have come full circle in today's science. In the kingdom of Denmark shall we declare that there is something 'rotten on this earth', in a circumstance that may be a preamble to the 'to be or not to be ' situation.Copenhagen, the venue of the largest UN conclave on environment ever, has always been among the prettiest and cleanest cities on the globe. It may entertain, even bias the extreme enthusiast by its surreal ambience, that the heat, as yet, is not on.The need of a global agreement to start cutting down carbon emissions to slow down a predicted global disaster, and finally to avert it, is an unescapable fact.

The urgency and significance to bring a binding universal agreement, places some unrealistic compulsions on the developing world. Most of these have little to spare from their fragile economies, have internal political hurdles, and what goes with all that, is poor governance. It also happens, that while they have much to do to give a reasonable living standard to their people, they probably have been nowhere near the worst offenders. The ranking order at the moment is China leading with 6,000 plus points, followed by the US at 5,700 or so. Japan, India, Russia, between the 1,200 to 1,500 mark. The clear and present danger is that China and India have the largest populations, and these economies are bound to grow, for their own sake, as well as to buoy the western economies.

The worrying circumstance is that China hits the highest, even with a fraction of per capita emission compared with the US. As it is the main trading and manufacturing partner of the US, its economy is just about hitting the base where an exponential spurt may start, and perhaps that is bound to happen, considering the needs of the US economy. With a large population base, and given the demands and the pricing of the west, it may have to continue to do so at low costs. That means cheap labour and cheap unrefined fuels will continue, and will be used to finally steer its own economy to the top.India naturally becomes the next concern. Extrapolating a steep rise in production, the total emissions may climb up, even if the per capita emissions are low. Slightly different concerns are raised here. It is a democracy, and in spite of having world-class IT setups, a massive pharmaceutical production, ample opportunities for developing healthcare infrastructure, textiles, and chemicals, a significant part of the population strides on, or is below the poverty line.

Agriculture, electricity, infrastructure like roads and basic irrigation facilities are yet to be streamlined for internal stability as well as for external trading. Its ability to qualify but its failure on the logistic front is being seen as a liability. India's lack of coherence in development, showing precipitous declines between the urban, semi-urban, and rural, in almost all parameters of civic, economic and social evaluation, is a disparity which only its people and changing governments can put up with. It has become its nemesis in bidding at global levels, be it a mega sport event, major tourist destination, or its ability to pick global challenges as the one in question.

It is a privilege of circumstance, that it continues to retain its importance as the next developing economy after China, though by today's parameters of industrialization and GDP, many see a yawning gap between the two economies. China may be a threatening super-performer, with much more to come. India is a likeable underperformer. Only performance matters. In essence though, the Copenhagen conclave is likely to end in predictable declarations. Its prime purpose is to pull out of the stumbling blocks of the Kyoto protocol, the developed world did not take much fancy to.

The present week is the time for, tier-two delegates, scientists, environment ministers, as well as prominent 'green' groups to compose a rough draft. In all probability, there will be a commitment of the Top 10 rankers to start reducing their emissions by 20-25% over the next decade. The glamour and oratory shall begin next week, when heads of states will begin to occupy the stage. The only show of wit and guile will be the developing world asking for financial concessions, in the absence of which, they may commit an effort, but refrain from the promise to achieve a target. Back home, and at the ground level, there will have to be drastic changes. Our politics needs a change of approach and attitude. Inclusive reforms that centre on overall development will have to be installed. If there is not much coming by way of concession, India may jack up the IT sector.

The extra revenues can be ploughed into energy intensive industries. Plans to tap all possible hydro power will need to be cleared without delay, with private participation. The untapped gas fields on the east and west coast should be the source of clean and addition energy. The need to sign a mega project on solar energy, with US and Japan, would be a greater achievement than any financial concessions right now. Lastly, setting aside political motives, acceptable but effective methods for population control need to be pressed in once again, quite the way China has been able to address this problem. Finally, Copenhagen reminds one of the historic Copenhagen Agreement of 1927, almost as difficult to comprehend as the uncertainties of climate. That was 'The Uncertainty Principle' of Heisenberg, and 'The Principle of Complimentarity' of Bohr. These two authors of Quantum Mechanics rejected the causality seen in conventional mathematics and physics, taking the subject to the levels of metaphysics and philosophy. Despite its many objections, some equations of the universe can only be answered by Quantum Physics. These may still be the bottom lines, 'uncertainty' and 'complimentarity'. Surely, the 'Little Mermaid' at the harbor will count the number of times she was vandalized. "All these acts were man-made", she is likely to add.